Sunday, October 26, 2008

5 lessons from the collapse

If there's 5 things you should learn from the collapse of the housing market and the subsequent turmoil on Wall St., here they are:

1: Every bubble bursts. Just because its been prolonged for thirty years doesn't mean it won't burst. If you want to see some bubbles in the process of being formed, go check out whats happening on the COMEX or wait until money comes back into the stock market. Any stock with the word solar or wind in it will shoot up. Later on, Wall St. will realize these companies don't do shit, aren't making any money, and are in terrible debt. There will be a massive sell-off leaving only the good companies at "fire-sale" prices. Speaking of Wall St.;

2: Wall St. traders are for the most part dumb as shit. Why the fuck else would high-cap stocks with NO DIVIDEND trade at 30X book value? Because Wall St. refuses to trade on the intrinsic value of ownership of stocks. Instead they trade based on their emotions and the alignment of the stars at the moment.

3: If you go into debt to buy something, you should be damn sure you actually want it. Consumer goes into extreme debt to buy house (0% down subprime loan at 10% interest), ibanks are leveraged 30:1 to buy securites based on those mortgages. Demand levels off, prices go down, borrowers default on all levels and all that leverage comes back to bite everyone in the ass. Are we still discussing how this crash happened?

4: The government is owned by the rich and powerful. If you aren't in that club you're basically fucked government-wise. Remember all those people asking "Where's my bailout?" Well it still hasn't showed up. And no, Barack Obama won't solve your problems. He's not in Washington to help you out. If you had read The Audacity of Hope, you would have read that Obama mostly hangs out with investment bankers. Have you seen any of them asking "Where's my bailout?" No. Because they know where it is.

5: Don't buy houses in shitty places like Stockton. Just because its a huge fucking house doesn't make Stockton any less shitty. (Sorry for dissing your city if there are any of you left with a house there)

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